In the NBA, offensive efficiency tends to win in the playoffs. But what determines offensive efficiency? The single most important factor is shooting. As pundits are fond of reminding us, it’s a make or miss league.
As a result, true shooting percentage is one of the most underrated statistics in basketball. Like effective field goal percentage, it takes account of the added value of 3-point shots; but it goes a step further by also taking account of the value of getting to the line and making free throws. Over the past two seasons, there is a very strong relationship between teams’ true shooting percentages and overall offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions).