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When advanced stats go wrong…

538 just published a new list of The 53 Best Franchise Players in the NBA. Before we dive in, it’s critical to understand the premise:

Specifically, we’ve projected the next six seasons of wins above replacement (WAR) for all 572 players in our database. Then we added the cumulative WAR totals over six seasons, with a slight tweak to reflect upside potential.

Two things we can’t stress enough: First, these ratings are purely statistical; there’s no manual tweaking involved. And second, focusing on the long term makes a lot of difference.