ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton examines the 1st round match-ups with an eye on which favorite is most likely to be upset. The basis for this comes from point differential and head-to-head match-ups.
Point differential is the trendy new analytic that we are supposed to care about. I’m sure there will be a new one next season.
Could a 1-8 matchup actually have the best chance of what would be just the fifth such upset since the NBA playoffs expanded to 16 teams in 1984?
The reason my model thinks so starts with the fact that Boston’s point differential (plus-2.