There are a lot of people out there imploring Danny Ainge to make some type of deal to blow up this team before March 15th. If you are one of those people, I'd have to ask you two questions: 1) Exactly what type of deal are you looking for? and 2) What types of postseason aspirations do you have for this group?
My guess is that you won't have a realistic answer for either of these two questions. That's ok. I get it. It's been a strange season. And, for those of you who didn't temper your expectations ahead of time, this disappointment has been difficult.
But, we've all known for some time that a this was coming......
I can remember walking out of the Garden in April of 2008. The Celtics had just smacked down the Hawks in game 1 of their championship run. That night, we had no way of foreseeing how much trouble the Hawks and Cavaliers would present, and it felt like the Celtics would easily coast to a title. Even that night, after just one postseason win, we discussed how painful the eventual fallout from this core group running their course would be. We all agreed that, without question, the benefits of winning a title would far outweigh the disappointment of the rebuilding that waited down the road.
Of course, they did win the title that season, and it was incredible. They were also deep in the mix in the following two years (I'm counting 2009, as I think they wind up back in the finals if Garnett is healthy). It's been a great, great run.
And now it's time to pay the piper.
It may not feel like the next phase has already started, because the old parts are still here. But, this team is not winning a title, and there's not a guy on the trade market who can change that. This season should be considered a success if these guys make it to the second round. They absolutely cannot beat Miami or Chicago in a seven game series. I'd bet my life on that. So, if they want to avoid being a one-and-done team, they'll need to finish as a top 6 seed in the East (they'd be the seventh seed if the season ended today). A top 6 seed. That's the best we can hope for, and I'm not even totally convinced we can pull it off.
This lowering of expectations has no doubt been difficult for fans. It's not hard to see why people are calling for drastic measures to be taken.
But, making desperation moves at this point would be the worst thing this team could do. Rebuilding, in most cases, is a long, arduous, painstaking process. Think about how long it took Danny the first time. However, in this case, it doesn't have to be that way. Ainge has done a good job building a competitive roster for the past two seasons without compromising our cap flexibility for this summer.
As things stand right now, the Celtics have four players under contract for next season. Those players are Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley, and JuJuan Johnson. There is also a player option for Brandon Bass. The Celtics currently have a total of 34.5 million dollars committed to next year's roster. By comparison, the Bulls have 39 million dollars tied up in three guys not named Derrick Rose (Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, and Carlos Boozer). The Lakers have 46 million dollars tied up in just 2 guys (Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol).
This means that, as long as the Celtics don't do anything rash, they're going to have a lot of flexibility in how they go about rebuilding this team. Assuming that maintaining that cap flexibility is priority #1 for Ainge, you can forget about trading Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, or Jermaine O'Neal. Anybody who trades for one of those expiring deals is giving up longer contracts in return. The Celtics should have no interest in that.
(note: I'm assuming the Thunder have nobody to make a real move for Ray and that the Bulls won't be going after him now that they have Rip).
That leaves only two guys: Pierce and Rondo. Pierce could certainly help a contender, but I'll be shocked if he doesn't retire a Celtic. So, then this conversation turns to Rondo, who has been a very polarizing figure as of late. It seems like we're constantly hearing rumors that he's being shopped. I've heard all of the different arguments for trading him, and I understand why people are concerned about his long-term future with this team.
The biggest knock on Rondo is the same that it's always been. He can't shoot. Defenders can play off of him on the perimeter. Given that concern, I can understand why some fans are concerned about moving into the future with him as the face of the franchise. However, there's been another anti-Rondo camp that has emerged lately, and it's one that I simply can't get behind. This is the camp of people who feel that he's been dominating the ball too much. This drum has been beaten louder than ever over the past 6 games (a stretch in which the team has gone 1-5). This idea, to me, is absurd. In essence, he's being slammed for the lack of offensive firepower that's around him.
Let me make this very clear: Rondo is not the problem. This team is old and it is slow. And, this offense was never really very good to begin with.
For starters, he's second in the league in assists at 9.5 a game - on a team that is the second slowest in the league. He's not dominating the ball. He sees the court extremely well, and he knows how to find guys who move without the ball (his recent chemistry with Chris Wilcox has been a great example of this). Secondly, this offense is simply not suited to his strengths. He's an up-tempo guy who attacks the rim brilliantly. This offense, however, is slow and relies far too heavily on outside shooting. Far too often, the movement is simply not there. Far too often, guys stand around and watch. He's being forced to take on more than probably feels natural for him. People will question shots that he takes because of his reputation, but they often appear no worse to me than the long jumpers for which the other guys are settling.
Rondo's offensive burden becomes extremely evident in transition. The term "one man fast break" is supposed to be a complimentary expression reserved for particularly explosive players. However, with the Celtics, it is quite literally what happens every time they force a turnover. Remember, this guy is an unselfish player. If guys could get out and run with him, the way Chris Wilcox has been as of late, they'd no doubt be rewarded. Instead, he's forced into difficult transition layups, or he fails to convert and ends up at the line (where he often gets only 1 of 2), or he has to slow up the tempo and get into the half-court, thereby squandering a chance for easy points.
Is he the type of player that can carry a team without any help? No. But, he's a tremendous young talent, and his contract makes him a great value. I've read rumors of trading him for Pau Gasol. I find that impossible to even think about. Pau is 31 and due over 19 million dollars in each of the next two seasons. That seems like the complete opposite of what the Celtics should be trying to do.
If Rondo and Pierce are the only viable pieces next season, then the rebuilding process is taking too long. As I said, the Celtics cap situation will put them in a position to make big improvements quickly. And, while Rondo might struggle at times to create offense for himself, the unique nature of his game makes him the perfect guy to run a team with multiple stars.
He puts tons of pressure on the defense, but doesn't want to shoot if he doesn't have to. He has great vision. He excels defensively and on the glass. He wants no part of other people's touches and he focuses a lot of energy on the parts of the game for which stars often have the least regard. Take any team with several star players, and he instantly elevates them. Put him on Miami. Championship. Take him off Miami and put him on the Lakers. Championship. Put him on the........dare I even say it.......yeah, put him on the New York Knicks. Legitimate Eastern Conference contenders once Melo returns. If you're a star, why wouldn't you want to play with this guy? If they want to attract the right pieces to bring this team back to a championship level, Rondo needs to remain part of the equation.
I'm saying "pieces". But, of course, there's only one piece on my mind. One very big piece - who may hit free agency this summer..........
Ok, please don't stop reading. I know that you've heard enough Dwight rumors now to make your head explode. But, the closer we get to the deadline, the more I feel like there's a chance Dwight finishes this season in Orlando. If I'm the Magic, none of the scenarios that have been discussed publicly blow me away. Obviously it's impossible to get any real value back for Dwight, and very few teams have as much to offer as the Knicks had to offer Denver in exchange for Carmelo Anthony last season. Those scenarios are few and far between. There's nearly a month left to go until we know for sure whether or not Dwight will be shipped. But, a deadline deal involving Orlando seems far from a certainty at this point. If he does make it to free agency, I really believe there's a strong case to be made for the Celtics. We already know that Boston is one of the teams he'd consider playing for, so the door is open.
This topic came up recently in an e-mail exchange with my ombudsman and NBA thought partner Ben Levy. He did a pretty good job of succinctly breaking down some of Dwight's better options, so I'm going to share what he said here (keep in mind he is a Sacramento Kings fan, and therefore has nothing to gain by Dwight joining the Celtics):
"I don't see how the Clippers can put together a good enough package to get him and they don't have cap room, so I don't think they can get him. Once you take that one off the table, Boston looks pretty attractive. The other candidates are all kind of limited:
Orlando- They might be able to keep him and they are set up to maximize his talents, but they just aren't that good. I think he leaves one way or another.
New Jersey- Deron Williams is obviously great and would be a fun teammate, but they literally have nothing else and giving up a ton of draft picks to get him would really kill their ability to surround those two with decent talent.
Lakers- They'd probably be in a similar situation to NJ. They are basically out of talent (outside of the big 3) and cap room, so they'd need to give up probably both Bynum and Gasol in a trade to get him. Kobe and Dwight would be nice, but it's slim pickings after that and Kobe is older. Plus, I would not want to play with the dude.
Dallas- Intriguing. They will have Dirk as the go-to scorer and they've got some interesting young guys (Beaubois!). Overall, though, I have a hard time seeing that one happen.
I think it then really comes down, in my mind, to Chicago or Boston. Chicago would have to do it by trade and Boston would have to do it through free agency, so they aren't really in direct competition. I think either would be great. I think I would probably choose Boston, though. By going through free agency, they don't have to give anything up to sign him. And they've got a young star PG to pair with him, plus veterans with championship experience to help them immediately transition to deep playoff runs. It's really kind of hard to picture a better setting. It just doesn't seem like something that is on his radar, though. C'mon, Dwight! Pull your head out of your ass!"
Indeed.
This just makes sense on a bunch of different levels. The Celtics would have the cap space to offer Dwight a max deal. The only place where he would have a bigger deal is Orlando. Many have speculated that Dwight would love to play in a huge market like LA or New York. However, you could do a lot worse than Boston, where he'd be on national television regularly. Therefore, in terms of contract and media market, the Celtics are a nice fit. However, if he's passing up more money and the chance to spend his whole career with the same franchise, this has to ultimately be about winning. Dwight has said as much. I believe the Celtics are also one of his best chances for a title.
In terms of a coach, you'd be hard pressed to find one more well-respected than Doc Rivers. That's an edge you'd think the Celtics have over all other teams vying for Dwight's services. In Rondo, we have another young superstar who can distribute the ball. Pierce is a versatile scorer who can help spread the floor. That 3-man core is an exceptionally strong one, and will be together for at least a few years. On top of that, the Celtics would most likely be able to persuade Ray Allen to return for much less than the 10 million he's made in each of the last two seasons. He and Pierce will help space the floor offensively. If this all happens, then you'd have to think Kevin Garnett would at least consider returning at a massive discount. KG is still a tremendous defender, but is no longer able to anchor the defense the way he could in 2008. With Dwight there, he wouldn't have to. With this 5-man unit, the Celtics would be immediate contenders. They'd have 3 legitimate all-star caliber players. They'd be exceptional defensively, and they'd have a lot of offensive firepower.
Of course, that's the best case scenario. There's no telling whether or not Ray and KG would be back. However, the core 3 of Howard, Rondo, and Pierce would give the Celtics a championship foundation, and there'd be no shortage of valuable assets lining up to join them.
None of us know what will happen with Dwight. But, certainly the Celtics will have the right kind of cap space to make a real run at him. Is it a long shot? Sure. But, its certainly possible. If it's going to happen, Rajon Rondo, who will turn 26 in a couple of days, is going to be the bait that brings Dwight to Boston. That's number 1 on the long list of reasons why the Celtics can't deal their young point guard.
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