The Ultimate College Football Playoff Breakdown

Barring some utter chaos, here is where we are.

I have predicted all sixteen members of the field before the final release. I waffled a bit on Alabama-Ohio State last year, but I felt like the committee would default to fewer losses. I also would have personally picked Penn State over Ohio State in 2016, and Baylor over TCU or Ohio State in 2014, but I thought the committee would end up disagreeing with me.

After four years of data, the most significant thing has been win/loss record. Penn State— despite having a 13th data point, conference title and head-to-head win over Ohio State—lost out to the Buckeyes because they were 11-2 and Ohio State was 11-1 in 2016. Alabama jumped Ohio State in…