Two things are undoubtedly true: an undefeated Baylor will make the playoff, and Baylor is very unlikely to go undefeated.
I’ve called the playoff correctly every season. I thought the committee should have Baylor or TCU over Ohio State in 2014, Penn State over Ohio State in 2016 and Ohio State over Alabama in 2017. But I was able to put aside what I would do and guess what the committee would ultimately do.
Let’s start with showing why an undefeated power five team will never miss the playoff, turn to why Baylor is very likely to lose a game and then discuss what Baylor’s situation would be with one loss.