10th percentile outcome: 7-10
How they get there: Baltimore’s offense doesn’t evolve, and opposing defenses are better prepared to force the Ravens to win through the air. The carelessness with the ball that Lamar Jackson showcased early on last season, when he ranked third in the league in turnover-worthy play rate through his first eight games, extends over the course of the entire 2021 season.
The loss of Yannick Ngakoue (74.5 pass-rush grade in 2020) and Matthew Judon (67.0) are felt on defense, as well. The Ravens struggle to generate consistent pressure, even with the league’s highest blitz rate.