1. Baltimore Ravens (1.40 Below)
Projected Wins: 10.5; +1.23 Standard Deviations
Actual Wins: 8; -0.17 Standard Deviations
Yes, the Ravens season was defined by injury, including several damaging hits that took place before the first kickoff (Marcus Peters, J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards). Nevertheless, Lamar Jackson managed to David Copperfield his way to victory after victory in the front part of the campaign, pulling out miraculous come-from-behind wins against the Chiefs and Colts.
With the wild game of musical chairs going on in the NFL this month, it is easy to forget about the Ravens, but they should be well-placed for a rebound.