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Is a Trade Up really “50/50?”

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So this caught my eye bright & early today…

DeCosta: "In general, trading up is dangerous. It's a little bit risky. I'd like to have 10, 12, 14 picks in every draft all things being equal." DeCosta said the team has studied the various trade ups historically and it's "50/50" in terms of the ones that have worked out.

— Jeff Zrebiec (@jeffzrebiec) April 9, 2020

I was instantly intrigued. I’ve been doing my own dives into the draft day trade market over the past few years and, with all due respect to Eric DeCosta and his team, I’m going to respectfully disagree with this sentiment.