Luis Robert Jr. And The Risk Of Chasing Upside

Three years ago, Luis Robert Jr. had just wrapped up quite the breakout season for the White Sox. After showing flashes of his five-tool potential from 2020-22, Robert proceeded to bat .264/.315/.542 with a 129 wRC+ in 145 games for the Pale Hose. He contributed 38 home runs, which still stands a career best, and he also added 20 stolen bases along with +12 Outs Above Average in center field. FanGraphs valued his total contributions at 5.0 wins above replacement.

Robert had signed a six-year, $55MM contract in January 2020, before he’d even debuted in the Majors. The 2023 breakout left the remaining $27.5MM in salary for 2024-25 looking like a bargain. Unfortunately, as is well-known by now,…