Last time I looked, Charles Leclerc was 4/1 to win in Australia. That could be generous. The odds against the Monegasque winning his first grand prix for Ferrari might actually be shorter than you think.
Giancarlo Baghetti did it in 1961; Mario Andretti famously made an emotional mark 10 years later and Kimi Raikkonen became an instant favourite in Italy thanks to his win in Melbourne in 2007. But none are likely to equal Nigel Mansell's achievement 30 years ago. He was barely expected to start his first race for Ferrari, never mind finish it. As for winning?