So, there’s this article by Dan Szymborski that you should probably read if you’re at all interested in thinking about the 2026 Atlanta Braves and their outlook: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/is-all-hope-lost-for-the-atlanta-braves/.
There’s a lot of good stuff about point-in-time projections as usual, but the gist is this:
If I do a very early 2026 projected standings for the NL East, with all the teams only having the players under contract for next season on their respective rosters, the Braves project for just an 79-83 record, third in the division and well behind the Phillies and Mets. While the front-end talent is still there, ZiPS cares about the team’s depth and injury status, and the uncertain pitching coupled with the holes in the lineup put a damper on the team’s win total in most of the simulations.