At one point this summer it looked the Mets might run away with the NL East. The tables have turned over the last few weeks with the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies surging while New York has floundered. FiveThirtyEight’s Neil Paine took a deep dive on a division race that has suddenly become interesting.
On July 28, our forecast modelgave the Mets a 53 percent chance of winning the division, compared with 22 percent for the Braves and 20 percent for the Phillies — a portrait of a division that was in the liminal space between “up for grabs” and “locked up.