As Yogi Berra said, “Predictions are hard, especially about the future.” (Like so many Yogi Berra quotes, he didn’t actually make this one, which appears to be an old Danish saying. And as Damon Runyon actually said, betting against someone’s prediction is a good way to get an earful of cider. (Just Google “earful of cider” if you’re confused.)
And as hard as it can be to predict the future when there is actually some rational process by which a prediction can be made, some things are sufficiently random that almost any prediction has a reasonable shot.