The Atlanta Braves lost to the New York Mets yesterday in the game in the series where they likely had the best chance to win with Spencer Strider on the mound. Tonight, they will bring Carlos Carrasco to the mound, who is clearly at the end of his solid career to face David Peterson who is in the prime of his.
If we look at underlying metrics, Carrasco has been a bit unlucky, while Peterson has been a bit lucky. If Carrasco has some positive regression to the mean, while Peterson has some negative, we may have a closer game than the pitching matchup suggests.