Team win projections are as much an art as a science. You can have the most accurate projection system for individual players in the world, but it will end up being useless at the team level, if you don’t have a good handle on playing time for those men. Injuries, too, can play havoc: the PECOTA prediction for the D-backs was off by nine wins, and the majority of that difference was likely the result of A.J. Pollock appearing in only a dozen games, and Zack Greinke throwing fewer innings than he had in any year since 2007.
War of WAR: Comparing the Arizona Diamondbacks projections
