Brutus: “There is a tide in the affairs of men, which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; Omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries.” — Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar
Jake Arrieta played for the Orioles. In his first two seasons they finished last in their Division. In his first three seasons, his ERA+ was below average and getting worse (89, 83, and 68). Halfway through his fourth season he was 27 years old and his ERA+ was 57. He missed the tide.
Perhaps Brutus overlooked something important when he looked at the tide in the affairs of men.