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How High Will The Diamondbacks Bounce in 2022?

First, I tip my hat to Jack Sommers for activating my optimism. His most excellent piece showed that that in the last 52 years, when a team wins less than 35% it’s rare when they bounce above .500 in the next season. The 2021 Diamondbacks are a rare team, more rare than the 2004 Diamondbacks.

The 2004 Diamondbacks had a 31.5% winning percentage. The next season they bounced to 77 wins. A better story will be the 2021 Diamondbacks because they will bounce higher than 77 wins. Is that view full of foresight & optimism?