AZ Snake Pit · Apr 6, 2022
An Optimistic Win Projection for the Diamondbacks
Photo by Sarah Sachs/Arizona Diamondbacks/Getty ImagesThis article was written to provide explanations of my prediction of Diamondbacks wins this season. My prediction was included as one of many in Jim McLennan’s yearly set of AZ Snake Pit predictions.
As you may know my view is usually optimistic. Nevertheless, I kept an open mind, strived for an objective process, and was prepared to surprise myself.
General Approach.
My first steps were to predict runs scored and predict runs allowed. Then the Pythagorean theorem was used to calculate wins. However, the Diamondbacks consistently win less games than the theorem calculates, so the final prediction was reduced.
Roster Assumptions.