Alabama coach Nick Saban is cold-hearted against Power 5 opponents, especially those who talk before the game. (See: Vanderbilt last year and Louisville last week.)
However, Saban seems to have a soft spot for fellow coaches at Group of 5 and FCS programs. He tends to get conservative in these games, especially in the second half. He also likes to get experience for his backups and avoid injuries.
Saban is just 4-13-1 ATS against non-Power 5 teams since 2012.
Arkansas State +36.5 isn't a sexy pick, but it should win you money. The Red Wolves feature a senior quarterback in Justice Hansen that came within a completion or two of a 4,000-yard passing season last year and accounted for 44 touchdowns.