Mark down Alabama Football for a win on Saturday afternoon. As Nick Saban said, 2025 Vandy is a stronger team than 2024 Vandy, but so is Alabama. The Crimson Tide will beat the Vanderbilt Commodores because of one clear advantage that clearly favors Alabama.
Often, cherry-picking stats can produce fool's gold. The outcome of college football games hinges on many factors. Unless a game is a massive talent mismatch, no one stat, or even any combination of stats, can predict winners. Stats provide clues, not assurances.
There can be statistical exceptions so definitive that they allow bold, but still sensible, one-stat predictions.