I had the idea a year ago to make a prediction model that would accurately weigh meaningful statistics to better predict the spread of football games, specifically Alabama football games. There are many models out there all claiming to be the best, but each has flaws.
I’m not going to claim this model is perfect because math, while a very powerful tool, cannot accurately predict the random aspects of sports. Injuries, mental mistakes, weather, etc. can all affect the outcome of games and are hard to quantify and place in a mathematical formula. I will say, however, that this model uses the most important statistic in football.