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The Washington Nationals are 1-7 this season in games started by pitcher Max Scherzer, the fiery ace who over the last few years has been the closest thing in baseball to a guaranteed “W.”

This year? Scherzer is 1-4 with a 3.78 ERA in eight starts. His fourth loss came May 1. Last year, the three-time Cy Young Award winner didn’t reach four losses until June 26.

So, clearly, the wear and tear of more than a decade in the majors is catching up to the 34-year-old, right?

Wins and losses aside, that’s not what the new-age baseball analytics say.