The Leafs have lost their last two meetings with the Sabres (both in Toronto), including a 6-4 loss last month. Their 7-5-0 record (with one OT win) in Buffalo during the Matthews era is certainly not as poor of a road record as the one the Leafs posted over the many seasons pre-Matthews when the Sabres’ rink was an infamous house of horrors for them, but it often doesn’t matter what the teams’ respective form is coming into these Sabres-Leafs matchups; it’s typically quite competitive and dramatic/high scoring.
The recent form of the two teams could not be more starkly different in a manner that favours Toronto on paper.