At some point in every NFL draft, executives, scouts and coaches abandon quantifiable data and become irrationally human. Armed with the most sophisticated fact-gathering, they will go directly against science and economics because they stare upward with eternal hope at the first-rounder they believe will rip out of his suit like a superhero for them.
For some years now, economic studies have shown NFL execs exactly what they should do to control the uncertainties of the draft: trade down. Trade down? Why not eat cold porridge. One of the few teams who have shown the will to trade down with any consistency are the New England Patriots.