The vital signs aren't good. The S&P 500 has fallen more than 10 percent since its September peak, which technically puts us in "correction" territory. In the past few weeks, markets whipsawed over whether we do or do not have a trade deal with China (we don't) and whether President Donald Trump will further jack up tariffs on Chinese-made goods (still unclear).
Stock wobbles alone don't necessarily imply an immediate downturn, of course. (They "forecast nine of the last five recessions," Nobel laureate Paul Samuelson once quipped.) But consumers also report rising pessimism to pollsters. The Treasury yield curve - which shows interest rates for bonds at different maturity dates - has partially inverted, which can signal that traders think the Federal Reserve will have to slash rates to goose the economy.