Let’s cut to the chase, shall we?
How many realistic contending teams for natty? — Daniel Monnier (@z3rdTry)
Now this is what a Twitter question should look like: short, crisp, to the point and on point. The key word here is “realistic.” Yes, the NCAA tournament is full of limitless possibilities, but in the vast majority of cases, it is an exercise in realism.
If we look at a decent sample size—say, the last 15 years—we find that a team seeded below the 2 line won the title only four times. Syracuse (2003) and Florida (2006) were both three seeds.