Five starts into his 13th season in the big leagues, Ervin Santana has allowed a mere three earned runs and is carrying a 0.77 ERA, the lowest mark in the Major Leagues. Given that Santana has made a career out of being more of a solid mid-rotation starter than an ace, and that he's got by far the lowest Batting Average on Balls In Play mark in the Major Leagues at .129, the obvious question is: "Has he really been good, or has he just been lucky?"
This early in the season, the correct answer to that is really "both.