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Jeremy Guthrie and the Myth of the College Draft Prospect Safety

Jeremy Guthrie was a first round draft pick in 2002 out of Stanford University. Jeremy Guthrie has accumulated a career fWAR of 11.5, and has thrown 1664.2 innings in the major leagues as of yesterday. The studies that are often quoted on the value of college vs. prep draft prospects would throw Jeremy Guthrie into the "successful draft pick" bucket, another piece of evidence in the case for the college player in the first round. Yesterday, Jeremy Guthrie was eviscerated by the Yankees to the tune of 11 earned runs in 1.0+ innings pitched. Obviously, Guthrie's performance yesterday, at age 36, doesn't diminish the rest of his entirely mediocre major league career, but he has been something of a punch line in his stint with the Royals.