Remarkable work here by longtime reader of the blog "craigesherickfreshpick":
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Inspired by yet another soul-crushing loss to Syracuse, I thought I'd add my own contribution to Hoya glory by documenting all statistically seemingly improbable losses since my freshman year of college (the ill-fated '01-'02 season).
I used KenPom's admittedly imperfect table of in-game win probability for teams of equal strength as the basis for my list. It's possible I missed a game or two, but I think this list of 39 games (updated to include last night's Butler debacle!) is fairly exhaustive.