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Bullpen fairy tales

A two-part narrative is developing around the Reds bullpen. It’s a simple story with a scary ending. First part: The bullpen has been bad lately and getting worse. Second: That’s because the relievers are getting tired from being used too much. The villain in this story is a shady cabal known as the Starting Rotation. Lately, every time the Reds bullpen gives up a run, people point an accusing finger at the bullpen workload. As if that’s the only reason for pitchers to perform worse one month than the weeks before.

Before this claim hardens into conventional wisdom, let’s take a closer look to see if there’s anything to it.