The 2015 Orioles have been hurt by miserable offense in high-leverage spots.
The Orioles through Sunday had a 19-22 record and were sitting in third place in the AL East. That’s what they’ve actually done; however, the two most-used win modeling systems (PythagenPat and BaseRuns) say the team’s record should be 21-20. The two-game difference can be attributed to sequencing; specifically, that the Orioles are failing to hit well in high-leverage spots.
A quick review of leverage: using the score, the number of runners on base, where they are on the bases, the inning, and the number of outs, we can get a sense of how important a certain plate appearance is for a team.