Halfway into the NHL season, the most likely playoff matchup is Lightning versus Leafs

If it seems early to start speculating about playoff matchups, that’s because it is. The season is only half over but the way things have gone in the Atlantic Division combined with the NHL’s point system have combined to set up a second half where the Lightning and Leafs have a 29% chance of facing each other in the first round.

Considering that both teams still have a greater than 10% chance of missing the playoffs altogether, that 29% represents a sizable share of their potential first round opponents.