Every year when FanGraphs releases the ZiPS projections for the Pirates, I do an article where I take the WAR projections, combined with my analysis on the expected playing time, and come up with an expected win total. This process started in 2013 and continued each season after that. The projections always came in higher than most other projections, but the real value here is that you can look at the individual projections at the end of the season and pinpoint where things really went right or wrong.
Unfortunately, the last two years have led to a practice where we've been looking at all of the things that went wrong, and very few things that went right.