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Bracketology: NCAA Tournament projection as of January 19, 2021

I typically release my first set of in-season bracket projections the day after the college football national champion is crowned, but this year I thought it might help to get an extra week of results before unveiling the projections. It did not.

With all of the COVID-19 related pauses and the associated scheduling impacts, assessing the profiles of tournament hopefuls is more difficult than ever. Some teams have played substantially fewer games than others, and looking at schedule strength is tricky since it doesn’t really account for what the original schedule was compared to what it ended up.