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Astros’ dream free-agent plan crumbles once fans face the harsh 2026 payroll reality

Dylan Cease's seven-year, $210 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays last week confirmed that the cost of free-agent pitching remains at a premium, if not, getting even higher. It's why it was understood throughout the 2025 season that the Houston Astros weren't going to be re-signing Framber Valdez. Cease's contract is only more confirmation of that speculation, and likely a greater indicator of what not to expect from Houston this offseason.

The Astros entered the offseason with less than $20 million before reaching the first level of the luxury tax, and remaining under that mark appears to have been what Jim Crane has directed Dana Brown and Co.