Outsized gains drive sports bettors to continue taking long-shot bets in the hopes of quickly growing their betting bankroll. Some look for big payoffs by parlaying numerous events into one bet.
Others search for long odd markets where the implied probability is a few percentage points lower than their expected-outcome models. One such bet still exists in the NFL futures market: the Cincinnati Bengals to make the playoffs. Right now, their implied probability at odds of +625 is 13.8%.
With our latest simulation pegging their odds almost 10 percentage points higher, we had to dive into why this was the best long-shot bet still on the NFL board.