The Giants have been the focus of two big trade rumors in the last few fays.
The bigger of those two deals is the possible Hunter Pence move, which nearly took over Twitter Sunday night. While acquiring Pence would certainly be a big, exciting trade for the Giants, it may be the less likely of the two major rumors. Even though I wrote earlier today that the Giants should pull the trigger on a Pence deal, I also know that the Giants and GM Brian Sabean are trying to save money, and a Pence deal would not accomplish this goal.
The second, and possibly more likely rumored swap, involves the Giants and the Seattle Mariners. Basically, the deal in place would send struggling first baseman Brandon Belt to the Mariners and net the Giants reliever Brandon League along with struggling first baseman Justin Smoak.
While meticulously diagnosing this second rumored trade, my mind went back and fourth on the outcome to which I would prefer. Keep in mind I am a Giants fan.
CONS of trade:
-Brandon League's $5 million dollar salary.
-Brandon Leagues's average 3.63 ERA
-Justin Smoak's .189 batting average.
-Losing Brandon Belt's fielding ability.
PROS:
-Brandon League's ability to be a power pitcher in relief.
-Justin Smoak's potential (11th overall pick in 2008)
-Justin Smoak's ability to hit for power.
-Getting rid of Brandon Belt's atrocious ability at the plate.
The pros outweigh the cons to me for several reasons.
First, Brandon Belt's truly offensive displays at the plate recently.
Before we go any further let me tell you that the following analysis of Brandon Belt's skill at the plate may seem harsh, but I actually like Belt. He hasn't been a bad teammate or person, but has just been a terrible hitter at a position that typically houses a power bat.
In the month of July Brandon Belt hit .180 from 1st base. If you take away one game where he had three hits, Belt was 5-56 during the month. That's a .90 average. Forget the Mendoza line, Belt batted below .100! Belt has shown the inability to do anything at the plate besides take the occasional walk. Belt cannot hit for average nor can he hit for power. He produces no runs. I have no stat for this, but I swear he is down 0-2 in the count every single at bat. It would be one thing if he had shown potential to develop or was still a young player, but Belt is almost 25. It doesn't look like it's going to get any better.
[caption id="attachment_343" align="alignleft" width="150" caption="Brandon Belt"]
[/caption]
In defense of Belt, he has always been a solid fielder and all around athletic first baseman. He uses his 6'5 frame to cover a lot of ground around first and snag errant throws. Running the bases, Belt has also exceeded the expectations of an average first baseman. At the plate, one stat can semi-redeem the rest of Belt's struggles: On Base Percentage. Belt has maintained a respectable OBP throughout the season even as his average has plummeted. While drawing walks is good, it doesn't produce runs. And yes, he is 24, and maybe by some miracle he could develop into a serviceable hitter. I just don't see that happening. Most of all, Belt has handled his slumps rather well and has never complained or made excuses. He seems to be liked by his teammates and be a positive clubhouse influence. Unfortunately, Belt hasn't put it together on the field.
Now that I have justified sending Belt to Seattle, you are probably asking what the Giants gain by inheriting an equally troubled Smoak. My answer: potential.
[caption id="attachment_341" align="alignleft" width="150" caption="Justin Smoak"]
[/caption]
I know Smoak has been horrendous at the plate this year. His .189 average is worse than that of Belt. His inability to put bat to ball has led to his butt finding the bench. But unlike Belt, Smoak still has something to hold on to - potential. Smoak was the 11th overall pick only three seasons ago. In his time in the bigs, he has always struggled with average. In his best season he posted a .249 mark (still better than any stretch Belt has had). While Smoak has struggled to consistently make contact, he has always possessed power (13 and 15 home runs in two abbreviated seasons. 13 so far this year.). I would rather take a chance on Smoak than sit and watch Belt hit .220 every year. Worst case: Smoak hits .200 but is always a threat to go deep. Best case: Smoak develops some consistancy, becomes a .250-.260 hitter that can drive in runs and hit 20+ home runs a year. I'll take the ladder option.
In addition to Smoak, the Giants would also get Brandon League. To me, a straight up Smoak-Belt swap would be sufficient, but League provides more immediate and consistant help to the bullpen. The Giants have several very good options in the pen, but could use another power arm. With a reasonable salary and a proven record, League would be a safe reliever to trade for and still provide an upgrade to the pen.
Nobody wants to send Brandon Belt off to Seattle, but baseball is a business. This trade gives the Giants a better chance to win now and in the future. The Giants should seriously consider making this swap.
Chris Fields is a Chat Sports senior writer. E-mail him at: Chris@ChatSports.com or reach him on Twitter: @Chris_Fields
Back to the San Francisco Giants Newsfeed