As San Francisco Giants fans sit through a Giant-less postseason, there's two things they can do: become the biggest supporter of anyone playing against the Dodgers, or turn their attention toward what San Francisco can do to assure they'll be back there next October (I fully endorse doing both of these actually). Focusing on the latter however, will bring up the next big decision for the San Francisco Giants. What do they do with Tim Lincecum? He will have a shot at the open market of free agency for the first time in his career. He's also coming off one of his more disappointing seasons, posting a 10-14 record and 4.37 ERA. Both Lincecum and the Giants have been diplomatic when addressing the future thus far, but this time next month we'll know the verdict, and how the Giants truly feel about their former top prospect and ace of the pitching staff. Until then we can only speculate, so let's take a look at some factors working for and against re-signing the former two-time Cy Young Award winner.
First we'll address why keeping Lincecum in the fold for the next few years makes a whole lot of sense for the Giants as a franchise:
1) Lincecum is still a franchise name. Sure players like Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, and Matt Cain have gained massive popularity over the last few years, but Lincecum is still one of the first names that comes to mind when you think about the San Francisco Giants. His recent performance may have soured the taste in some fans' mouths, but he still garners phenomenal support from the fan base as a whole. The Giants have made a point to keep their franchise faces in San Francisco for the foreseeable future (Posey, Cain, Bumgarner and Pence have all signed extensions in the last 18 months), and Lincecum certainly warrants that same consideration.
2) It's entirely possible to give Lincecum the credit for ushering in the “pitching wins championships” philosophy in San Francisco. This is in no way a slight to Cain, but as the Giants moved out of the Barry Bonds era, it was Lincecum that captivated fans with his performances on the mound. It was Lincecum who kept the Giants relevant in the national 
headlines. And it was Lincecum who essentially bridged the gap between the old Bonds era and the new Posey era. Granted re-signing him for simply being the face of the franchise for a few years between super-star hitters may seem like a gesture of acknowledgment for past performance more than a show of confidence in his current ability, but nonetheless it is a potential factor in the decision.
3) Perhaps the most relevant of reasons to support re-signing him is the fact that he can still be a dominant starting pitcher in the major leagues. The bottom line is, players get paid to play, and for how much of an impact their performance effects the outcome of the game. It's not difficult to make a case for Lincecum being one of the most impactful players during his 4-year run of success in 2008-2011, as his back-to-back Cy Young seasons can attest to. At 29 years old, it's doubtful (although possible) that Lincecum has completely lost his ability to dominate hitters on any given night. It's easy to point to categories like ERA, Win/Loss, and strike out totals and pick apart his regression over the last two years as a sign that he is past his prime, but the fact is that surface stats like those can often be deceiving. Looking at his Swinging Strike Percentage (S/Str %), the percent of pitches a batter swings at without making contact, he posted a 19 S/Str % in 2013; still well above the MLB average of 15%. That 19% mark is actually on par with his career S/Str %. Lincecum clearly still possesses the swing-and-miss ability that made him a force on the mound in the early part of his career. You don't just throw a no-hitter and turn in a 6th consecutive 190 + strikeout season without a moderate amount of talent.
Of course the possibility exists that Lincecum and the Giants part ways, either one-sided or mutually, once free agency opens up next month. Here's a few reasons why that may happen:
1) Price. Lincecum just made $22 million for his sub-par 2013 season. While his performance this year will most likely cost him some money in whichever contract he signs next, the fact is that players who get paid the big money tend to keep getting paid at the same price level until no team is willing to pay them. So while $22 million may not happen, it's entirely conceivable that a team offers up an annual salary of $15-18 million. When you watch Lincecum pitch every fifth day for six years, it's a little easier to be underwhelmed by his past two seasons, however the consensus around baseball is that he is still capable of slotting in as #2/3 rotation guy. It's hard to speculate about contract size this early in the offseason, but if a team is willing to pay him close to what he is making now, it probably won't be the Giants.
2) The franchise has lost confidence in “The Freak”. As I mentioned earlier, the Giants have not shied away from giving up big money to keep their star players in San 
Francisco. Yet Lincecum has consistently been given one or two year deals throughout his arbitration-eligible years. It would be odd timing on the Giants' part to suddenly shell out a 3-4 year deal for him after tip-toeing their way through his first four arbitration years. With that in mind, it becomes apparent that the Giants don't see Lincecum holding up long-term like Cain and Bumgarner. They may be more comfortable with yet another two year deal, which Lincecum would surely reject, were there a more guaranteed contract on the table somewhere else.
3) It's just time to let go. Sure a fairy-tale ending always warms the heart, and Lincecum spending his career in San Francisco would certainly qualify as such a tale, but holding on too long may just ruin the whole story in the end. The Giants certainly don't want to re-sign him and watch as his performance dips drastically, with the fan base slowly turning on him as the years pass by. Leaving San Francisco at this stage in his career, not quite on top but still favorable, may be the perfect time for both parties.
Final verdict: I believe Big Time Timmy Jim stays in San Franciso, but if I had to provide my confidence level on a scale of one-to-ten on my prediction, I'm probably at about a "6" right now. Just for fun, my shot-in-the-dark pick if he doesn't sign with the Giants: the Baltimore Orioles.
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