The Ohio State Buckeyes take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in their first ever College Football Playoff elimination game on Thursday...and it's gonna be a fun one. The Buckeyes forced their way into the playoff with a dominant finish to the 2014 regular season, while Alabama persevered through a series of tough games, beating five ranked SEC opponents en route to a playoff bid. Who has the edge? Let's break it down and give our prediction for Thursday's winner:
Offense
Ohio State is now onto their third starting quarterback of the year, but the Buckeyes haven't missed a beat. Braxton Miller went down for the year in August, making way for J.T. Barrett...but then Barrett got hurt against Michigan, opening the door for third-stringer Cardale Jones. Jones was excellent in Ohio State's 59-0 demolition of Wisconsin, and while he might not be as experienced as Barrett or Miller, he definitely hasn't looked like a downgrade.
Elsewhere, on offense, the Buckeyes have sophomore RB Ezekiel Elliott, a lightning rod reminiscent of Pittsburgh Steelers dynamo Le'Veon Bell, and wide receivers Devin Smith and Michael Thomas have both been consistent, reliable outlets no matter who's been playing under center.
Alabama quickly settled on Blake Sims after a short QB competition at the beginning of the season, and Sims has come through with a consistently solid season. Sims has thrown 26 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in 2014, with over half of those touchdown passes going to superstar WR Amari Cooper.
Cooper, a deceptively quick, technically flawless receiver projected to go in the first few picks of May's NFL Draft, will be Alabama's main threat in the receiving game. The Tide lost RB Kenyan Drake to a broken leg early in the season, but T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry have both excelled in his absence.
The Ohio State ground attack is slightly better than Alabama's, but the Crimson Tide has the edge through the air. Both offensive lines are among the best in the country, and while Ohio State's has a slight edge in talent, the Crimson Tide's group is slightly more experienced.
Edge: EVEN
Defense
Ohio State has the standout player in LB Joey Bosa, but Alabama has no shortage of talent on the defensive side of the ball. The Buckeyes held opponents to just 21.2 points per game, and they proved against Wisconsin that they can shut down potent offenses. As good as they looked against Wisconsin, though, the Buckeyes haven't always been able to stop top rushing attacks - they gave up 218 rushing yards to Minnesota and 281 to Indiana.
Alabama's main strength - their success against the run - will be the key to this game. The Crimson Tide are the second-best team in the country when it comes to stopping the run, and by taking away Ohio State's most potent offensive tool, they'll be able to force Cardale Jones to beat them with his arm. That doesn't guarantee success, but Alabama's experienced secondary (led by future first-round NFL draft pick Landon Collins at safety) will take those chances any day of the week. The Crimson Tide allowed more than 25 points just once this season (their Iron Bowl victory over Auburn), while Ohio State allowed 25 or more points five times this season against a weaker overall schedule.
Edge: Alabama
Special Teams
Ohio State and Alabama have both struggled in the kicking game this year - the Buckeyes have converted just over 61% of their field goals, with the Crimson Tide not far ahead at 63.6%. Both teams are better when punting (although neither has done much of that this year), with both squads ranked in the top 10 nationally in avg. yards per punt.
Neither school has a significant advantage in their return game, and primary returners Jalin Marshall (OSU) and Christion Jones (Alabama) are both solid, but unspectacular.
Edge: EVEN
Other Notes
- Neither team has a real coaching edge, with both Nick Saban and Urban Meyer easily among the top football minds in the nation.
- Both teams carry strong momentum into this matchup after morale-boosting wins in their respective conference championship games.
- As good as Cardale Jones looked against Wisconsin, he only attempted 17 passes in that game, and if he goes down, the Buckeyes will have to play returner/WR Jalin Marshall under center. Marshall played QB in high school, so he won't be coming in blind, but if you want an experienced backup...well, he's no Jacob Coker.
Predictions
- The Buckeyes will try to assert themselves on the ground early - look for a lot of Ezekiel Elliott in the first quarter.
- This is Lane Kiffin's last game with Amari Cooper to work with on offense. Expect to see him ride Cooper hard, especially on screen passes and play action - anything less than 15 targets would be a huge surprise.
- Alabama's defense will ultimately make the difference. The Crimson Tide have the depth and talent to slow down the Buckeyes and get Cardale Jones out of his comfort zone - something Wisconsin never did in Ohio State's 59-0 win over the Badgers. If Alabama can get to Jones and rattle him early, the Buckeyes won't have much else to work with.
- Look for Ohio State to hang with Alabama early, but fade down the stretch as the Crimson Tide move on with a 35-24 victory.
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