The juxtaposition of the National League East in 2015 showed us a team at the top of standings that was the eventual World Series runner-up, along with the team at the bottom of the standings that ended up turning in the worst record among all major league teams. Many baseball writers (including myself) were convinced before the season started that the Washington Nationals would come out of last season as the division winner. The Nationals not only failed to win the division, but they also fell short of a postseason berth.
The Mets' dominance in 2015 has given me a different outlook for this season. I've come up with predictions for how I think each team will finish within the division, along with who I believe will be that team's most valuable player next season. I've also included a player to watch that has an interesting storyline this season or has the potential to have a breakout year.
So, here goes, after consulting my crystal ball, here's how I predict the NL East:
Last Place: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies finished with the worst record among all major league teams last season, but Philadelphia has at least addressed some of the reasons that have made them free fall to the bottom of the standings since winning over 100 games in 2011. The Phillies aren't going to climb back to the top this season, and frankly, they will be lucky to not repeat as the worst team in the major leagues. Pitching will be a huge problem for Philadelphia in 2016, and the Phillies are really depending on right-hander Aaron Nola to emerge as their ace in just his second season. Nola showed promise in his first year, and we will see flashes of his potential as the season progresses. He will need some time to develop his command, and that in turn will allow opposing hitters to send a lot of balls over the fence against him this season.
Maikel Franco, along with Nola, is another player the Phillies will turn to for production that's under the age of 25. Franco is slated to be the Phillies' everyday third baseman, and he's showed some tremendous power this spring. In 80 games last season, Franco hit for a .280 average with 14 home runs and 50 RBIs. He posseses a lot of raw power, and if he can develop that power, the Phillies will have a star in the making. The concern I have for Franco has to do with Philadelphia not having any hitters in the lineup that will protect him in the order or get on base for him to drive in. It wouldn't surprise me, however, if Franco hit over 25 home runs this season.
2016 MVP: Maikel Franco
2016 Player to Watch: Aaron Nola
Fourth Place: Atlanta Braves
The Braves, like Philadelphia, will struggle on the mound this season. Their projected starting pitching rotation lacks a pitcher that had an ERA less than four runs in 2015. Atlanta's last season playing at Turner Field won't be a memorable one, and the Braves could be competing with the Phillies and Reds for the worst record in the major league in 2016. If the Braves want to find any success, it will be vital that they're able to keep first baseman Freddie Freeman healthy for the majority of the season. Freeman has been dealing with a wrist injury since last year that's still limited him this spring. There's speculation the Braves may try to move Freeman this season, and this speculation might turn into reality, looking at the Braves recent trades over the past couple seasons.
One player that sparks my interest heading into this season is third baseman Adonis Garcia. Garcia showed some promise in 2015, hitting for a .277 average with 10 home runs and 26 RBIs in just 58 games. The Braves will try to use him and Nick Markakis to protect Freeman in the lineup. A.J. Pierzynski returns to Atlanta to be the everyday catcher, and the Braves will definitely need his assistance in developing their young pitching staff.
2016 MVP: Freddie Freeman
2016 Player to Watch: Adonis Garcia
Third Place: Miami Marlins
2016 will be Don Mattingly's first season at the helm for the Marlins, after he parted ways with the Los Angeles Dodgers after last season. Mattingly, along with the Marlins' front office, is hoping for a healthy 2016 for their two star players who have both suffered injuries in the last two seasons that's caused them to miss a significant amount of playing time. Giancarlo Stanton looked like he was going to run away with the National League MVP race last season before being injured. Stanton played just 74 games, but in that span, he hit 27 home runs with 67 RBIs. He's a neccessity for the Marlins' offense to flourish and should benefit from Christian Yelich and Martin Prado's ability to get on base in front of him.
Like Stanton, Jose Fernandez is a necessity for the Marlins' starting pitching rotation. Fernandez started 11 games in 2015 after missing the majority of 2014 due to Tommy John surgery, and the Marlins are expecting the 2013 National League Rookie of the Year to bounce back for a full season. Behind Fernandez in the rotation is Wei-Yin Chen, who the Marlins acquired from the Baltimore Orioles during free agency. Chen wasn't the biggest name the Marlins could've signed, but he's consistent compared to the arms that follow him and Fernandez in Miami's rotation.
2016 MVP: Giancarlo Stanton
2016 Player to Watch: Jose Fernandez
Second Place: Washington Nationals
Like I said earlier, the Nationals suffered from a lot of dissappointment with their 2015 finish, which left them out of the postseason. The silver lining in 2015 was Bryce Harper winning the National League MVP award, and Harper really put together a great season, hitting for a .330 average with 42 homers and 99 RBIs. The 23 year-old Harper will look to improve in some aspect of his game, thought it seems very difficult to top those numbers. Right-hander Stephen Strasburg and infielder Anthony Rendon will both try to bounce back from a 2015 where they were both hindered greatly by injuries. Strasburg battled an ankle injury and a strained oblique last season and posted the highest ERA since his debut in 2010. The Nationals' starting pitching rotation will be headed by Max Scherzer, who pitched not one, but two no-hitter last season.
Washington signed outfielder Ben Revere and infielder Daniel Murphy to upgrade their lineup offensively in order to compete with the New York Mets' powerful lineup. I would be very surprised if shortstop Trae Turner is not called up from Triple-A sometime around the All Star break to help fill the hole left in the order from Ian Desmond, who Washington released follwoing the 2015 season. The Nationals have to be motivated following their absence from the postseason, and new skipper Dusty Baker will try to guide the Nationals to a first-place finish in 2016.
2016 MVP: Bryce Harper
2016 Player to Watch: Stephen Strasburg
Predicted Division Winner: New York Mets
The Mets did a great job re-signing Yoenis Cespedes back to the team this season following a fantastic 2015 at the plate. New York acquired Cespedes from the Detroit Tigers at the trade deadline last season, and he provided a big spark to the Mets' lineup. Cespedes hit the baseball very well in the second-half of the season, hitting 22 of his 35 home runs. Nine of those home runs came in the month of September, during the Mets' postseason push where he slugged .689. Lucas Duda cemented his spot as the Mets' everyday first baseman going into 2016 after he hit for a .244 average and 27 home runs. New York signed Neil Walker from the Pittsburgh Pirates to play second base after the departure of Daniel Murphy to Washington.
New York's starting rotation could very well be the best in Major League Baseball. The Mets' have announced that Matt Harvey will be the Opening Day starter for 2016, and including him, the Mets possess four of the most-talented young arms in the major leagues. 2014 Rookie of the Yeark Jacob deGrom looked like a seasoned veteran last year, winning 14 games and striking out 205 batters. The two newcomers last season were Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz, who both looked fantastic in their first season. Syndergaard has an explosive fastball, and he struck out 166 hitters last season while walking just 31. If Syndergaard is able to develop another pitch, he will be a legitimate Cy Young Award candidtate in the near future.
2016 MVP: Yoenis Cespedes
2016 Player to Watch: Noah Syndergaard
The race for the NL East will be one the best division races in Major League Baseball throughout the 2016 campaign. I truly believe that two teams from this division will be present in the postseason once October rolls around.
As always, thanks for reading! Be sure to follow me on Twitter @griffaldo.
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