Betting With Your Heart vs. Your Head - This Weekend's Betting Guide

There is so much to love about college football.  If you're making a list of the most loveable aspects, you could obviously point to the pageantry. Man do I love the pageantry.  You know that feeling you get in your stomach when the band comes out and you laugh at how hot it must be in their halloween costumes. They are hundreds of people playing instruments to the delight of tens of people.   There is also all the drinking.  You have to be sure to get high-school-girl-at-first-party-drunk at your particular tailgate or bar to enjoy the pageantry.

Probably my favorite part of the pageantry is the heckling the other team's fans.  If you really want to enjoy yourself be sure to drop some choice f-bombs around children trying to enjoy their first game.  Remember,  pointing out the lacking academic standards of your rival school while sprinkling in the fs is more important than a young person keeping their childlike sense of wonderment intact. First amendment bro. If the 7 year olds around your tailgate don't have some poignant vocab questions for mom and dad at day's end, you're doing it wrong.

With those timeless rules in place, you can really enjoy the game, but not enough to just care about the win.  The only thing that's really important is that the team you bet on covers or scores too few or too many points to satisfy an over/under. If college football isn't 100 percent about betting everything in your home that isn't nailed down (up to and including the lives of fringe family members) I don't know why the hell I'm watching.

The question that every dirty, despicable gambler asks themselves each dirty, despicable day of their dirty, despicable lives is: Should I bet on my team this week?  You should never bet with your heart, the smart people I listen to say, but are they right?  This island of self-inspection is where I find myself this weekend.  Should I bet on Michigan -10?  If you listen to anyone who claims to know things about sports, it's just plain dumb to bet on our boys in blue this weekend  You know the reasons: Our offense has been hit or miss depending on the second.  Our defense remains a question mark followed by several other question marks creating a aneurysm inducing  question mark sentence.  Smarter and more astute football minds can break it down for you here. I'm not here to pretend I know more about X's and O's than you, I'm just here to pretend that I know more about betting trends and the animal spirits that drive them than all but the +96 IQ crowd.

Game LOG for the 2011 Season Results Offense Defense
Date Opponent Line OU Score SU ATS OU RY RYPA PY PYPC RY RYPA PY PYPC
09/17 vs E MICHIGAN -30.5 62.5 31-3 W L Un 376 7.5 95 13.6 207 4.5 29 9.7
09/10 vs NOTRE DAME +3.5 58 35-31 W W Ov 114 4.4 338 30.7 198 6.0 315 11.7
09/03 vs W MICHIGAN -14 58.5 34-10 W W Un 190 7.3 98 10.9 96 3.8 183 8.3

The one thing that I know about life is that whenever something seems like a sure thing, it always isn't.  Numerous Brazilain trannies can attest to that little nugget.  Look at the "experts" take on this game here and here.  Plus Kyle Turley is yelling things like "I love LAMP!" and throwing helmets.  Things are getting frightening for Michigan fans that believe that lemmings live a logical lifestyle.  I bet three people in your office this week said something to the effect of "oh man Michigan has quite a test this weekend." Well give those people a quick sack tap and bet a few shekles on Michigan this weekend.  Not because I said so, but because LAS FRICKING VEGAS believes we're going to win by 10.  I tend to trust people who stake their livelihoods on getting 50 percent of people on both sides of a bet to make a line that's going to be pretty close to accurate.  Scientific? Absolutely not. But we're not dealing with rational actors when talking about weekend betters.  We're dealing with people like me,  and people like me are idiots.

Michigan 31 - San Diego 17 - Ship it.

Other games I like that will probably lose you money:

Oregon - Arizona - Oregon 15.5

Penn State - Eastern Michigan - Under 46

Alabama - Arkansas - Over 50.5

Baylor - Rice - Over 67

Tulane - Duke - Under 67

Over / Under heavy but these are the ones that really jumped out.  For the sake of my future's children's college education I hope I'm right.

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