Through a series of conversations with people extremely close to Peyton Manning, we've learned that Manning will leave his NFL future in the hands of the doctors he's worked with over the past three years. Our sources have access to intimate details of Manning's current health situation, and were willing to discuss his plans on the condition of anonymity.
"Peyton wants to come back, but the doctors have the final say," said our source. "If they say he could injure his neck long-term, he'll be forced to retire. It's safe to say that they'll seek out second opinions if the doctors want him to retire, but it'll likely be pretty cut and dry."
Manning, coming off a blowout loss to Seattle in the Super Bowl, will visit his doctors several times over the next 10 weeks and undergo a series of rigorous tests to determine whether the physical toll of the past two seasons has put his neck in danger of permanent damage. Doctors want to make absolutely sure that there's no possibility of a hard hit causing instant, life-threatening damage.
Manning wants to come back, and his plan right now is to play three more seasons in Denver before retiring after the 2016 season, when he'll be 40 years old.
"He's thinks he has three more seasons in him before he hangs it up." said our second source.
What could cause Manning to retire? According to our first source, there was a small possibility that Manning would be forced to retire after the 2012 season due to irritation to his neck and shoulder directly related to throwing footballs. Manning was able to extensively rehab his arm and neck, and his doctors confidently cleared him to play in 2013 (good call on their part!). If his upcoming off-season neck rehab doesn't allow him to recover to full strength, it's unlikely that further rehab would put him back in safe playing condition, no matter how long he tries.
Several things will be scrutinized. The most important is swelling around Manning's neck, and doctors will closely monitor how quickly rehab reduces the swelling and pain. Another is potential loss of arm strength due to swelling and irritation in his neck.
Manning's doctors will meet with Denver team doctors and executives in early April to determine his status and assess the likelihood of him playing in 2014.
If it appears likely that Manning will be forced to retire, we are told the Broncos will look to free agency and the draft to bring in both a veteran and a future QB prospect to fill Manning's enormous shoes. Current backup QB Brock Osweiler is not considered to be a long-term option if Manning is unable to return.