Just as everyone predicted, the Boston Celtics rallied from a 21-point deficit to stun the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Behind the game of Marcus Smart's life, the Celtics avoided the sweep to pull off the biggest upset in NBA Playoffs history (based on point spread) and are now down 2-1 in the series. Can Boston tap into the luck of the Irish in Game 4 or will Cleveland rebound and look like the team that wrecked the Celtics in the first two games. Here's a preview and prediction for tonight's game.
Game Info:
When: 8:30 P.M. ET
Where: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH
TV: TNT
Spread: Cavs (-15.5)
O/U: 217.5
What They're Saying About The Cleveland Cavaliers:
Game 3 loss is just what Cavs needed (FanSided)
LeBron James says his bad night is behind him, ready for Game 4 against Boston (Cleveland Plain Dealer)
Game 4 Hype Video (Chat Sports)
What They're Saying About The Boston Celtics:
Boston Celtics Gave The NBA What It Needed (FanSided)
Who will be the Celtics’ hero in Game 4? (Celtics Blog)
Isaiah Thomas in process of seeking opinions on ailing hip (Boston Herald)
Key To The Game: Is There Regression To The Mean?
First an explanation of what regression to the mean actually is, for those unfamiliar with the terms (it's one of my favorites). Basically it means that things tend to even out over time. And there are two prime examples of players due for regression to the mean in Game 4: Marcus Smart and LeBron James.
Smart, starting in place of Avery Bradley, had the best game of his life in Game 3. Smart averaged 10.6 points per game this year and was dead last in the NBA among qualified player 28.3 percent shooting beyond the arc. So naturally, in Game 3, Smart explodes for 27 points, seven assists and five rebounds on 7 of 10 3-point shooting. Surely he can't reproduce those figures, right? If he doesn't, then Boston will be in trouble. After all, it took a career game from Smart and a awful game from LeBron James for Boston to win.
Speaking of James, regression to the mean works in the other direction. After torching every team he's faced in the playoffs this year, James had one of his worst ever games. He had just 11 points (with six boards and six assists) on a woeful 4 of 13 shooting. He was also 0 for 4 from 3-point range 3 of 6 from the charity stripe. Anyone think James will have back-to-back clunkers?
Prediction: Cavs win 120-100
Even after the Celtics stunned everyone, the Cavs are still favored by more than 15 points (a huge spread for an NBA game). The Celtics need one of James' worst ever games and career games from Smart to barely eek out a win. It's unlikely the Cavs struggle like they did late in Game 3. And if Boston does manage to hang around, it's tough to think David can take down Goliath two times in a row.