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WPA, Jerry Lynch, and the Amazing Summer of 1961

Win Probability Added (WPA) is a fun stat that captures the context of a player’s performance. Much of Sabermetric analysis focuses on neutralizing the context of a performance, whether it is for the run environment, ballpark or opportunities. WPA is the ultimate context dependent statistic, where a home run in the 9th inning of a tie game is much more valuable than a home run in the 1st inning. WPA calculates the change in Win Expectancy after each batter’s performance.

I, like most Reds fans, have grown weary of the mediocre (at best) bench players the team has been employing the last few years (I would suggest the last really good Reds group of reserves was in 1995, but the floor is open for other nominations).